🏡 Are Builders Overbuilding Again? Let’s Look at the Facts.

A Midlands, South Carolina Market Analysis by The Sherpa Group

If you live in the Midlands whether in Columbia, Lexington, Blythewood, Elgin, Irmo, or Aiken you’ve probably noticed something:
New neighborhoods are popping up almost everywhere.

From rows of sparkling new homes in Northeast Columbia to large master-planned communities in Elgin and Lexington, it’s understandable why many homeowners are asking:

👉 “Are builders overbuilding again?”
👉 “Is the Midlands heading toward too much supply?”

The answer isn’t as simple as “yes” or “no.”
The reality is much more balanced and much more reassuring.

Let’s break down what’s actually happening in today’s market.

🧱 1. Yes, New Construction Is Increasing -But It’s Controlled (Not Reckless)

Compared to the frenzied building boom of the early 2000s, today’s builders are working in a very different environment.

Higher construction costs, stricter lending requirements, and labor shortages have naturally limited how fast builders can build. This has created a measured pace not a flood.

In the Midlands, you’ll see new homes in places like:

• The Mill at Woodcreek Farms (Elgin)

• Lake Carolina and Longcreek (Blythewood)

• Red Bank/White Knoll (Lexington)

• Hopkins and Southeast Columbia

But the pace matches demand not speculation.

📈 2. Population Growth Is Fueling Demand — Not Overbuilding

South Carolina continues to rank as one of the top inbound states for relocations.
People are moving here from:

• Florida

• North Carolina

• New York & New Jersey

• Ohio & Pennsylvania

• Texas

Why?
➡️ Affordability
➡️ Job opportunities
➡️ Military relocation
➡️ Lifestyle and climate
➡️ Lower property taxes

The Midlands benefits directly from this growth thanks to:

• Fort Jackson

• Shaw Air Force Base

• The University of South Carolina

• Growing healthcare, logistics, and manufacturing sectors

This steady influx keeps demand strong even as more new homes are built.

🏘️ 3. Inventory Is Rising — But It’s Needed After Years of Shortage

From 2020 to 2023, our market suffered a historic inventory shortage.
Buyers were fighting over every listing. Homes were selling in hours, not days. Prices soared.

Builders stepping in now is not overbuilding — it’s correcting an imbalance.

Today, the Midlands is moving toward a healthier amount of inventory, where:

• Buyers have more choices

• Sellers see more stable, predictable demand

• Prices rise at normal rates instead of spikes

This is exactly what a healthy market looks like.

🕒 4. New Construction Isn’t Sitting — It’s Selling (Just Not Overnight)

Are some new homes taking longer than they did in 2021-2022? Yes.
Are they sitting long enough to signal oversupply? Not at all.

Homes that do sit tend to be:

• Higher-priced new builds

• Homes in communities where amenities aren’t finished yet

• Properties priced too aggressively

• Homes with floor plans that don’t match local demand

But well-priced, well-designed new homes in the $275K–$450K range are still selling steadily especially in family-friendly areas like Blythewood and Lexington.

🔍 5. Builders Are Adapting to Buyer Preferences

This is one of the biggest differences compared to past building cycles.

Today’s Midlands buyers want:

• Energy-efficient features

• Open-concept spaces

• Modern kitchens with granite or quartz

• Work-from-home flex rooms

• Community amenities (pools, walking trails, playgrounds)

Builders are no longer guessing what the market wants they’re building based on data.

That keeps supply aligned with demand.

⛔ 6. The Midlands Is Not at Risk of Overbuilding — Not Anytime Soon

In fact, several housing studies show:

➡️ South Carolina remains underbuilt when compared to population growth.
➡️ Demand is especially strong in the Columbia metro area.
➡️ New construction is helping stabilize pricing instead of overheating it.

We are nowhere near the construction surplus of the 2007-2008 market crash.

Today’s growth is driven by real demand  not speculation.

🧭 What This Means for Midlands Homeowners

If You’re Thinking of Selling:

You’re still in a strong position.
Updated, well-maintained resale homes are highly desirable especially in established neighborhoods with mature landscaping.

If You’re Thinking of Buying:

You now have more choices.
New construction can offer warranties, energy savings, incentives, and modern features that many buyers want.

If You’re Just Watching the Market:

Relax — the Midlands is growing steadily, sustainably, and responsibly.

🏔️ The Sherpa Group Perspective

At The Sherpa Group, we track Midlands data daily across Columbia, Lexington, Elgin, Blythewood, Aiken, and Sumter.

Here’s our expert view:
✨ “Builders aren’t overbuilding the Midlands is finally catching up.”

Growth is intentional.
Inventory is balancing.
Demand remains strong.

It’s not a bubble.
It’s a market finding its equilibrium.

🔑 Thinking About Your Next Move?

Whether you’re considering new construction, preparing to sell, or trying to time the market, The Sherpa Group is here to guide you with clarity and confidence.

📍 Serving the Midlands: Columbia • Lexington • Irmo • Blythewood • Cayce • Aiken • Elgin
✨ Your Sherpa to Real Estate.