The Housing Market Is Turning a Corner Heading into 2026

A South Carolina Market Perspective from Nima Sherpa, Team Leader – The Sherpa Group Team

For the past few years, the housing market has felt stuck in a holding pattern. Elevated mortgage rates slowed buyer activity. Many homeowners chose to stay put rather than give up historically low interest rates. And uncertainty kept both sides cautious.

But as we move toward 2026, something important is happening beneath the surface.

The market isn’t surging but it is shifting.

Across South Carolina and particularly in markets like Columbia, Lexington, Blythewood, Irmo, and surrounding Midlands communities, we’re seeing early signs of renewed momentum. More listings are coming to market. Buyers are re-engaging. And affordability, while still a challenge, is gradually improving.

This isn’t a dramatic rebound. It’s something better: a measured, healthier transition toward balance.

Here are the three key trends driving that shift and why they matter if you’re buying, selling, or planning ahead for 2026.

1. Mortgage Rates Are Trending Down — and Stability Matters

Mortgage rates will always fluctuate. That’s normal, especially in an economy still adjusting to inflation control, global uncertainty, and shifting monetary policy.

What matters most isn’t short-term spikes it’s the broader direction.

Over the course of this year, rates have gradually eased from their highs. While they’re still above the historic lows of the early 2020s, they’ve settled into a more predictable range. That stability is critical.

Why? Because predictability restores confidence.

As Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist Sam Khater recently noted, even modest rate improvements can translate into thousands of dollars in annual savings for buyers. In practical terms, that means:

• Lower monthly payments

• Increased purchasing power

• More flexibility when choosing a home

Data shows that buyers with the same monthly budget today can afford significantly more home than they could a year ago. That shift alone is enough to bring many hesitant buyers back into the conversation.

At The Sherpa Group Team, we’re seeing buyers move from “waiting indefinitely” to “planning intentionally.”

That’s a meaningful change.

2. More Homeowners Are Ready to Sell

For much of the past few years, inventory remained tight due to what’s often called the lock-in effect. Homeowners with 2–4% mortgage rates were understandably reluctant to sell and take on higher payments.

That dynamic hasn’t disappeared but it is easing.

As rates stabilize and life circumstances take center stage, more homeowners are choosing to move for reasons that have nothing to do with interest rates:

• Job changes

• Growing families

• Downsizing

• Relocation

• Lifestyle shifts

As a result, inventory levels across many South Carolina markets are climbing toward more historically normal levels something we haven’t seen consistently in years.

This is good news for everyone.

Buyers gain more options and negotiating power. Sellers benefit from a market that’s less chaotic and more sustainable. And overall, the housing ecosystem becomes healthier.

Well-priced, move-in-ready homes are still selling but the days of automatic bidding wars are fading. Strategy matters again.

3. Buyers Are Quietly Re-Entering the Market

The return of buyers hasn’t been loud but it’s real.

Mortgage application data shows an increase in purchase activity compared to last year, a clear sign that demand is rebuilding. Buyers who stepped back during peak uncertainty are re-engaging with clearer expectations and better financial preparation.

Today’s buyers look different than they did during the frenzy:

• They’re more informed

• They’re more patient

• They’re more value-driven

They’re not chasing headlines. They’re running numbers.

Looking ahead, major housing economists from organizations like Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association, and the National Association of Realtors are forecasting modest but steady growth in home sales heading into 2026.

That’s exactly the kind of environment where smart decisions outperform rushed ones.

What This Means for South Carolina Buyers and Sellers

This market shift won’t happen overnight. We’re not heading into another boom  and that’s a good thing.

What we are seeing is the foundation for a more balanced, opportunity-driven housing market:

• Rates stabilizing instead of spiking

• Inventory increasing without oversupply

• Buyers returning with clarity and confidence

📍 What This Shift Means in Columbia, SC

In Columbia, the market is moving toward balance after several tight years. Buyer interest remains steady, especially for homes near downtown, Forest Acres, Northeast Columbia, and areas close to major employers and the University of South Carolina.

Inventory has increased modestly, giving buyers more choices without flooding the market. Well-priced, move-in-ready homes are still attracting attention, while properties that need updates or are priced aggressively are taking longer to sell.

For sellers in Columbia, preparation and pricing accuracy matter more than ever. For buyers, the return of options creates opportunities to negotiate something that was rare just a couple of years ago.

📍 What This Shift Means in Lexington, SC

Lexington continues to be one of the most competitive and desirable markets in the Midlands, driven by strong schools, new construction, and long-term growth.

As we head into 2026, more homeowners in Lexington are listing especially those making lifestyle-driven moves rather than rate-driven ones. This has created slightly more inventory, but demand remains strong for newer homes and well-maintained properties in established neighborhoods.

Buyers in Lexington are more selective, but they’re still acting quickly when value is clear. Sellers who understand current pricing and market timing are seeing success without the extreme volatility of recent years.

📍 What This Shift Means in Aiken, SC

Aiken’s market reflects a blend of stability and opportunity. With its equestrian presence, historic charm, and growing appeal to retirees and relocators, buyer interest remains consistent.

Inventory growth in Aiken has been steady rather than sudden, which has helped prevent sharp price swings. Buyers are finding more breathing room, while sellers continue to benefit from strong demand for well-located, move-in-ready homes.

As we move toward 2026, Aiken is well-positioned for continued activity, particularly among buyers seeking lifestyle-focused communities rather than short-term market speculation.

According to Nima Sherpa, Team Leader of The Sherpa Group, this type of market rewards preparation, pricing accuracy, and strong guidance not guesswork.

Whether you’re considering buying, selling, or simply planning for the future, understanding how national trends translate locally is critical. Real estate is never one-size-fits-all, especially in diverse South Carolina markets.

After several slower-than-normal years, the housing market is beginning to turn a corner. Declining mortgage rates, improving inventory levels, and renewed buyer activity all point toward a more active and balanced 2026.

If you’re thinking about your next move  now or in the year ahead  let’s talk.

At The Sherpa Group, we focus on strategy, data, and local insight to help our clients make confident decisions in changing markets.

Connect with Nima Sherpa and The Sherpa Group to discuss what these trends mean for your goals and how to position yourself for success in 2026.